Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.73 – 51.76

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.1 ±10.7

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 104.92Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 36.32Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 106.49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.7 ±9.8

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 25.15Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX -2.37Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 28.98Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1024, 8103, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1024, 8103, 234

Auto

39.2 16%

Teleop

149.1 61%

Endgame

58.0 24%

Strengths

· 234 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6498, 9491, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6498, 9491, 761

Auto

17.6 40%

Teleop

22.1 50%

Endgame

4.2 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score247.7pts

Blue projected score51.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196
Score range: 32–268
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 112.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.1Season APEX371.7

39.2Auto17.6

149.1Teleop22.1

58Endgame4.2

43Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	32
teleop	138	68
endgame	65	27
foul	0	0
total	249	127

Result

Final score

249 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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