Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.83 – 126.97

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.1 ±11.2

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 15.62Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 91.02Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 26.19Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181 ±12.8

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 64.61Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5188Area 5188: Classified Robotics

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 28.95Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8432Cyber Knights

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 33.41Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9790, 868, 10434

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9790, 868, 10434

Auto

17.1 14%

Teleop

75.3 60%

Endgame

32.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1747, 5188, 8432

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1747, 5188, 8432

Auto

27.8 22%

Teleop

68.3 53%

Endgame

32.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.8pts

Blue projected score127pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.9
Score range: 106–154
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 100 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.1Season APEX181

17.1Auto27.8

75.3Teleop68.3

32.5Endgame32.9

59Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	14
teleop	34	12
endgame	0	18
foul	0	0
total	56	44

Result

Final score

56 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 79.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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