Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.03 – 11.84

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401.5 ±10.7

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 100.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 17.32Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 26.42Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.4 ±12.2

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -7.94Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 26.99Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

292PantherTech

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX -7.21Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 234, 3487, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

144 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 3487, 761

Auto

21.4 16%

Teleop

76.6 59%

Endgame

32.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7657, 8103, 292

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7657, 8103, 292

Auto

3.6 80%

Teleop

-1.1 0%

Endgame

2.0 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144pts

Blue projected score11.8pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.2
Score range: -8–164
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401.5Season APEX179.4

21.4Auto3.6

76.6Teleop-1.1

32.4Endgame2

82Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	13
teleop	108	29
endgame	19	13
foul	0	0
total	163	55

Result

Final score

163 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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