Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.56 – 201.57

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.1 ±11.7

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 45.44Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 85.6Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 15.52Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 568.1 ±9.9

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 111.18Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 55.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 34.59Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10434, 1747, 10172

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10434, 1747, 10172

Auto

21.0 14%

Teleop

87.1 60%

Endgame

37.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1024, 10021, 3147

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1024, 10021, 3147

Auto

52.0 28%

Teleop

82.3 44%

Endgame

50.9 27%

Strengths

· 1024 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.6pts

Blue projected score201.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55
Score range: 127–222
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.1Season APEX568.1

21Auto52

87.1Teleop82.3

37.2Endgame50.9

96Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	49
teleop	19	119
endgame	12	41
foul	0	0
total	49	209

Result

Final score

49 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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