Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
199.15 – 0
92%8%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
94 – 59
Prediction correct · off by 82.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.5 ±12
Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 7.94Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 57.1Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 134.11Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304 ±9.8
Season APEX 79.6Event APEX -3.89Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 60.7Event APEX -5.94Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 7.32Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10411, 8432, 7457
80
/ 100 compatProjected
199.2 pts
~2.4 RP (district)
Teams: 10411, 8432, 7457
Auto
44.8 22%
Teleop
119.5 59%
Endgame
37.4 19%
Strengths
- · 7457 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9119, 9491, 1741
7
/ 100 compatProjected
-2.5 pts
~0.6 RP (district)
Teams: 9119, 9491, 1741
Auto
-2.7 0%
Teleop
6.8 100%
Endgame
1.6 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 45%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.59
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score199.2pts
Blue projected score-2.5pts
Red win probability92%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 45%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 199.2
- Score range
- -21–220
- Upset likelihood
- 8%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
355.5Season APEX304
44.8Auto-2.7
119.5Teleop6.8
37.4Endgame1.6
10Consistency139
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 16 | 7 |
| teleop | 48 | 32 |
| endgame | 30 | 20 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 94 | 59 |
Result
Final score
94 – 59
Prediction correct · off by 82.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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