Qualification · Qualification 20
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
199.62 – 107.64
76%24%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
102 – 26
Prediction correct · off by 89.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.3 ±11.2
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 44.61Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 51.64Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 103.37Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±11.7
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 37.31Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 1.09Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 69.24Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4926, 5188, 868
77
/ 100 compatProjected
199.6 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 4926, 5188, 868
Auto
19.1 10%
Teleop
109.6 56%
Endgame
66.3 34%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6498, 9071, 6956
55
/ 100 compatProjected
107.6 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 6498, 9071, 6956
Auto
13.5 14%
Teleop
59.3 64%
Endgame
20.5 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.9
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score199.6pts
Blue projected score107.6pts
Red win probability76%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 92
- Score range
- 87–221
- Upset likelihood
- 24%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
412.3Season APEX209.1
19.1Auto13.5
109.6Teleop59.3
66.3Endgame20.5
67Consistency58
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 24 | 10 |
| teleop | 59 | 8 |
| endgame | 19 | 3 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 102 | 26 |
Result
Final score
102 – 26
Prediction correct · off by 89.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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