Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.07 – 157.36

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.8 ±11.7

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 14.89Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

292PantherTech

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 12.37Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 89.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.3 ±10.7

3487Red Pride Robotics

Season APEX 67Event APEX 24.84Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 34.83Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 97.69Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9790, 292, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9790, 292, 1720

Auto

16.8 17%

Teleop

48.0 50%

Endgame

31.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3487, 8430, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3487, 8430, 5010

Auto

31.4 22%

Teleop

78.3 54%

Endgame

35.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.1pts

Blue projected score157.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.3
Score range: 96–178
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 118.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.8Season APEX337.3

16.8Auto31.4

48Teleop78.3

31.7Endgame35.4

35Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	22
teleop	19	85
endgame	5	38
foul	0	0
total	40	145

Result

Final score

40 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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