Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

10.47 – 109.45

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.5 ±12.8

8103Knight Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 16.34Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX -7.61Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 1.74Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.8 ±9.8

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX -5.01Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 90.59Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 23.87Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8103, 9491, 10172

/ 100 compat

Projected

10.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8103, 9491, 10172

Auto

-4.3 0%

Teleop

6.1 72%

Endgame

6.7 79%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4982, 4580, 1741

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4982, 4580, 1741

Auto

24.5 24%

Teleop

54.2 54%

Endgame

22.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score10.5pts

Blue projected score109.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99
Score range: -12–131
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 76 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.5Season APEX346.8

-4.3Auto24.5

6.1Teleop54.2

6.7Endgame22.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	22
teleop	23	15
endgame	0	6
foul	0	0
total	33	43

Result

Final score

33 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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