Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
89.79 – 118.31
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
70 – 35
Prediction missed · off by 51.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.5 ±10.5
Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 22.83Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 35.96Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 31Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.4 ±13.9
Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 77.6Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 74Event APEX 54.11Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 59.5Event APEX -13.4Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 45, 8430, 3147
57
/ 100 compatProjected
89.8 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 45, 8430, 3147
Auto
16.8 19%
Teleop
55.2 62%
Endgame
17.3 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5188, 1018, 2171
71
/ 100 compatProjected
118.3 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 5188, 1018, 2171
Auto
24.8 23%
Teleop
55.4 51%
Endgame
29.4 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.68
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score89.8pts
Blue projected score118.3pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 46%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -28.5
- Score range
- 69–139
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
213.5Season APEX192.4
16.8Auto24.8
55.2Teleop55.4
17.3Endgame29.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 10 |
| teleop | 36 | 15 |
| endgame | 13 | 10 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 70 | 35 |
Result
Final score
70 – 35
Prediction missed · off by 51.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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