Qualification · Qualification 14
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
105.03 – 37.78
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
60 – 107
Prediction missed · off by 57.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.4 ±11.7
Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 7.26Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 46.5Event APEX -4.22Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 101.99Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.1 ±11.7
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 21.55Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 27.2Event APEX 9.29Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 6.94Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9119, 8431, 6956
63
/ 100 compatProjected
105 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 9119, 8431, 6956
Auto
15.1 15%
Teleop
50.7 50%
Endgame
34.8 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4926, 9790, 6498
36
/ 100 compatProjected
37.8 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 4926, 9790, 6498
Auto
2.0 6%
Teleop
19.6 56%
Endgame
13.5 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 0.94
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score105pts
Blue projected score37.8pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample178alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 67.3
- Score range
- 17–126
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
187.4Season APEX238.1
15.1Auto2
50.7Teleop19.6
34.8Endgame13.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 11 | 10 |
| teleop | 41 | 42 |
| endgame | 8 | 40 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 60 | 107 |
Result
Final score
60 – 107
Prediction missed · off by 57.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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