Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.11 – 144.63

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 142.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.2 ±9.3

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 28.11Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 63.27Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 34.73Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.1 ±12.8

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 91.97Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9071SlicerTech

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 15.65Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10411G-Code Generals

Season APEX 47.9Event APEX 37.01Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4580, 5010, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4580, 5010, 234

Auto

22.1 19%

Teleop

66.2 56%

Endgame

29.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1747, 9071, 10411

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1747, 9071, 10411

Auto

22.3 15%

Teleop

91.2 62%

Endgame

34.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.1pts

Blue projected score144.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.5
Score range: 106–165
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 112.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.2Season APEX186.1

22.1Auto22.3

66.2Teleop91.2

29.4Endgame34.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	12
teleop	195	22
endgame	84	11
foul	0	0
total	311	45

Result

Final score

311 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 142.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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