Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.13 – 133.33

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358 ±10.5

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 85.71Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3147Munster Horsepower

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 43.69Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 18.73Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 519.8 ±9.3

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX -Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 85.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 28.41Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 3147, 9491

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 868, 3147, 9491

Auto

26.3 18%

Teleop

83.3 56%

Endgame

39.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4982, 1720, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4982, 1720, 761

Auto

21.5 16%

Teleop

80.3 60%

Endgame

31.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.1pts

Blue projected score133.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.8
Score range: 112–169
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 115.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358Season APEX519.8

26.3Auto15.7

83.3Teleop70.7

39Endgame27.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	47
teleop	72	24
endgame	27	0
foul	0	20
total	109	91

Result

Final score

109 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 40.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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