Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.24 – 42.7

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 22.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.8 ±12.8

10172Apex Archers

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX -1.85Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX -Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 5.54Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 120 ±13.9

2171RoboDogs

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 24Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8432Cyber Knights

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX -Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9790Crypto Creek II

Season APEX 27.2Event APEX -1.85Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10172, 1018, 4926

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10172, 1018, 4926

Auto

7.5 31%

Teleop

5.9 24%

Endgame

10.8 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2171, 8432, 9790

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2171, 8432, 9790

Auto

11.6 35%

Teleop

12.6 39%

Endgame

8.5 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.2pts

Blue projected score42.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.5
Score range: 2–65
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 102 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.8Season APEX120

1.3Auto5.4

-4.3Teleop2.3

6.7Endgame4.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	2
teleop	34	8
endgame	17	8
foul	0	20
total	64	38

Result

Final score

64 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 22.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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