Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.05 – 37.41

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 93.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.1 ±9.8

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 88.47Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX -12.31Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 24.89Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336 ±12.4

8432Cyber Knights

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 3.97Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 20.59Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1018Pike RoboDevils

Season APEX 74Event APEX 12.85Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 234, 4982, 6498

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 234, 4982, 6498

Auto

16.4 18%

Teleop

54.9 60%

Endgame

20.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8432, 1024, 1018

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8432, 1024, 1018

Auto

5.9 28%

Teleop

7.0 34%

Endgame

7.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.1pts

Blue projected score37.4pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.6
Score range: 16–122
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 115.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.1Season APEX336

16.4Auto5.9

54.9Teleop7

20.4Endgame7.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	62
teleop	75	101
endgame	26	37
foul	0	0
total	125	200

Result

Final score

125 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 93.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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