Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

338.13 – 348.79

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 235 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.4 ±9.3

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 123.08Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 138.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 76.09Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.8 ±9.8

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 100.23Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 129.97Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 118.59Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 761, 4982

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5010, 761, 4982

Auto

57.1 17%

Teleop

185.7 55%

Endgame

92.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3176, 45, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3176, 45, 234

Auto

44.9 13%

Teleop

210.0 60%

Endgame

94.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score338.1pts

Blue projected score348.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.7
Score range: 288–399
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 275.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.4Season APEX360.8

57.1Auto44.9

185.7Teleop210

92.6Endgame94.8

124Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	84
teleop	73	180
endgame	67	91
foul	20	0
total	217	0

Result

Final score

217 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 235 pts

Match videos

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