Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
387.57 – 382.58
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
187 – 358
Prediction missed · off by 112.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.6 ±9.3
Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 64.43Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 283Event APEX 163.96Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 159.18Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564.8 ±9.3
Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 123.46Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 100.01Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 159.11Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7617, 10021, 1024
83
/ 100 compatProjected
387.6 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7617, 10021, 1024
Auto
84.9 23%
Teleop
215.2 57%
Endgame
74.8 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 868, 4926, 1720
82
/ 100 compatProjected
382.6 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 868, 4926, 1720
Auto
79.3 21%
Teleop
217.3 58%
Endgame
76.0 20%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 42%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.69
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score387.6pts
Blue projected score382.6pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 17%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 5
- Score range
- 333–438
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
603.6Season APEX564.8
84.9Auto79.3
215.2Teleop217.3
74.8Endgame76
113Consistency122
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 57 | 82 |
| teleop | 86 | 208 |
| endgame | 44 | 68 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 187 | 358 |
Result
Final score
187 – 358
Prediction missed · off by 112.6 pts
Match videos
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