Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.07 – 337.13

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

423 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 673.8 ±8.1

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 22.69Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 147.63Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 168.75Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 527.4 ±9.3

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 122.67Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 138.37Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 76.09Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1741, 7457, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1741, 7457, 4272

Auto

83.9 25%

Teleop

165.6 50%

Endgame

84.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5010, 761, 4982

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5010, 761, 4982

Auto

55.4 16%

Teleop

192.2 57%

Endgame

89.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score339.1pts

Blue projected score337.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.9
Score range: 288–388
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 757 vs event baseline 274.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

673.8Season APEX527.4

83.9Auto55.4

165.6Teleop192.2

84.7Endgame89.7

117Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	66
teleop	205	147
endgame	100	106
foul	0	15
total	423	334

Result

Final score

423 – 334

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts

Match videos

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