Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.44 – 338.1

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

276 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 96.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.8 ±9.8

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 104.49Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 134.14Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 120.81Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.1 ±10.4

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 81.89Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 128.74Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 127.47Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3176, 45, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3176, 45, 234

Auto

40.5 11%

Teleop

215.9 60%

Endgame

104.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6498, 461, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6498, 461, 3940

Auto

69.7 21%

Teleop

166.1 50%

Endgame

96.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score359.4pts

Blue projected score338.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.3
Score range: 289–408
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 274.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.8Season APEX397.1

40.5Auto69.7

215.9Teleop166.1

104.5Endgame96.6

108Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	43
teleop	167	100
endgame	46	86
foul	0	0
total	276	229

Result

Final score

276 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 96.3 pts

Match videos

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