Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.34 – 255.53

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.7 ±10.4

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 115.16Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 79.42Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 65.76Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.6 ±9.3

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 106.43Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 111.26Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 37.84Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 829, 5402, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 829, 5402, 447

Auto

40.7 16%

Teleop

148.5 58%

Endgame

66.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1501, 3494, 9491

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1501, 3494, 9491

Auto

53.5 21%

Teleop

138.9 55%

Endgame

60.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score260.3pts

Blue projected score255.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.8
Score range: 206–310
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 275.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.7Season APEX478.6

40.7Auto53.5

148.5Teleop138.9

66Endgame60

103Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	88
teleop	100	120
endgame	57	61
foul	15	0
total	217	269

Result

Final score

217 – 269

Prediction missed · off by 28.4 pts

Match videos

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