Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
338.26 – 388.99
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
335 – 359
Prediction correct · off by 16.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.1 ±10.4
Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 82.01Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 128.95Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 127.3Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564.8 ±9.3
Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 125.71Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 101.2Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 162.08Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6498, 461, 3940
80
/ 100 compatProjected
338.3 pts
~1.4 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6498, 461, 3940
Auto
71.7 22%
Teleop
163.5 49%
Endgame
95.6 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 17%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 868, 4926, 1720
83
/ 100 compatProjected
389 pts
~2.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 868, 4926, 1720
Auto
77.4 20%
Teleop
221.5 58%
Endgame
81.0 21%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 17%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.02
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score338.3pts
Blue projected score389pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 17%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -50.7
- Score range
- 289–438
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
397.1Season APEX564.8
71.7Auto77.4
163.5Teleop221.5
95.6Endgame81
143Consistency116
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 62 | 95 |
| teleop | 173 | 194 |
| endgame | 100 | 55 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 335 | 359 |
Result
Final score
335 – 359
Prediction correct · off by 16.6 pts
Match videos
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