Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

375.9 – 349.32

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

439 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603.6 ±9.3

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 60.43Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 160.04Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 155.43Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.8 ±9.8

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 101.1Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 130.83Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 117.39Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7617, 10021, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7617, 10021, 1024

Auto

86.6 24%

Teleop

213.6 59%

Endgame

64.5 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3176, 45, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3176, 45, 234

Auto

34.0 10%

Teleop

210.6 60%

Endgame

107.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score375.9pts

Blue projected score349.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.6
Score range: 300–425
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 838 vs event baseline 272.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603.6Season APEX360.8

86.6Auto34

213.6Teleop210.6

64.5Endgame107.7

121Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	67
teleop	217	232
endgame	113	95
foul	20	5
total	439	399

Result

Final score

439 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 pts

Match videos

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