Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

371.42 – 341.74

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 148.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 673.8 ±8.1

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 33.14Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 158.91Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 179.37Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.6 ±10.4

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 125.26Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 88.02Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 128.46Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1741, 7457, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1741, 7457, 4272

Auto

88.7 24%

Teleop

186.8 51%

Endgame

89.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 829, 5402, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 829, 5402, 6721

Auto

63.4 19%

Teleop

201.8 59%

Endgame

74.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score371.4pts

Blue projected score341.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.7
Score range: 293–420
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 272.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

673.8Season APEX359.6

88.7Auto63.4

186.8Teleop201.8

89.4Endgame74.7

122Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	48
teleop	69	116
endgame	67	43
foul	0	0
total	209	207

Result

Final score

209 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 148.6 pts

Match videos

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