Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

359.19 – 383.06

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

461 – 420

Prediction missed · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 673.8 ±8.1

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 29.91Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 153.85Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 175.43Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 564.8 ±9.3

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 124.08Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 100.8Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 158.18Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1741, 7457, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1741, 7457, 4272

Auto

89.5 25%

Teleop

176.3 50%

Endgame

87.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 868, 4926, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 868, 4926, 1720

Auto

79.3 21%

Teleop

217.9 59%

Endgame

75.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score359.2pts

Blue projected score383.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.9
Score range: 310–432
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 881 vs event baseline 274.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

673.8Season APEX564.8

89.5Auto79.3

176.3Teleop217.9

87.6Endgame75

109Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	89
teleop	234	207
endgame	68	124
foul	40	0
total	461	420

Result

Final score

461 – 420

Prediction missed · off by 69.4 pts

Match videos

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