Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

273 – 154.31

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

333 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 111.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 517.5 ±8.7

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 67.86Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 99.14Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 106Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.8 ±9.8

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 35.24Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 87.68Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 31.39Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 868, 5484, 761

/ 100 compat

Projected

273 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 868, 5484, 761

Auto

47.9 18%

Teleop

160.0 60%

Endgame

58.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7657, 8116, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7657, 8116, 3176

Auto

26.6 17%

Teleop

91.1 59%

Endgame

37.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score273pts

Blue projected score154.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.7
Score range: 106–321
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 650 vs event baseline 269.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

517.5Season APEX284.8

47.9Auto26.6

160Teleop91.1

58Endgame37.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	42
teleop	196	194
endgame	63	81
foul	20	0
total	333	317

Result

Final score

333 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 111.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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