Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

283.41 – 200.85

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

242 – 283

Prediction missed · off by 61.8 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301 ±9.8

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 125.99Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 94Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 63.42Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.1 ±9.8

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 63.14Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 94Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 43.71Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4982, 135, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4982, 135, 6721

Auto

53.8 19%

Teleop

164.1 58%

Endgame

65.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 45, 234, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 45, 234, 447

Auto

35.7 18%

Teleop

110.6 55%

Endgame

54.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score283.4pts

Blue projected score200.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.6
Score range: 152–332
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 525 vs event baseline 270.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301Season APEX328.1

53.8Auto35.7

164.1Teleop110.6

65.5Endgame54.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	27
teleop	143	125
endgame	64	126
foul	0	5
total	242	283

Result

Final score

242 – 283

Prediction missed · off by 61.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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