Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.86 – 339.29

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 404

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.7 ±9.3

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 17.6Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 50.17Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 59.09Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.3 ±9.8

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 173.38Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 42.5Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 123.41Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8430, 5484, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8430, 5484, 447

Auto

19.7 17%

Teleop

61.8 53%

Endgame

35.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4272, 9431, 6721

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4272, 9431, 6721

Auto

66.1 20%

Teleop

171.9 52%

Endgame

91.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score126.9pts

Blue projected score339.3pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -212.4
Score range: 78–388
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 594 vs event baseline 272.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.7Season APEX442.3

19.7Auto66.1

61.8Teleop171.9

35.4Endgame91.9

154Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	75
teleop	100	244
endgame	57	80
foul	10	5
total	190	404

Result

Final score

190 – 404

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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