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Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST Indiana State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.66 – 193.1

77%23%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.6 ±8.7
10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears
A
Season APEX 283Event APEX 152.88Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
1741Red Alert
B
Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 27.06Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
234Cyber Blue
C
Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 110.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318 ±9.8
8116Hatchet Robotics
C
Season APEX 99Event APEX 95.28Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
1646Precision Guessworks
B
Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 56.51Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
9491Crypto Creek
D
Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 41.31Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 1741, 234
70
/ 100 compat
Projected
290.7 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 10021, 1741, 234
Auto
44.5 15%
Teleop
147.0 51%
Endgame
97.9 34%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 16%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8116, 1646, 9491
50
/ 100 compat
Projected
193.1 pts
~1.0 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8116, 1646, 9491
Auto
22.8 12%
Teleop
83.0 44%
Endgame
81.8 44%
Strengths
  • · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
  • · Thin autonomous coverage
  • · Below-average combined firepower
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 16%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.01
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score290.7pts
Blue projected score193.1pts
Red win probability77%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 11%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
97.6
Score range
144–340
Upset likelihood
23%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 272.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.6Season APEX318
44.5Auto22.8
147Teleop83
97.9Endgame81.8
138Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto6923
teleop21075
endgame8654
foul55
total370157

Result

Final score

370 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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