Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.39 – 202.28

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.2 ±9.8

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 109.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 111.02Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 69.97Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±9.8

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 126.86Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 25.38Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 50.04Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4926, 1501, 4580

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4926, 1501, 4580

Auto

56.2 19%

Teleop

157.5 54%

Endgame

75.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 829, 135, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 829, 135, 7657

Auto

46.5 23%

Teleop

127.6 62%

Endgame

32.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score290.4pts

Blue projected score202.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.1
Score range: 153–339
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 271.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.2Season APEX252.4

56.2Auto46.5

157.5Teleop127.6

75.9Endgame32.2

95Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	24
teleop	133	127
endgame	31	53
foul	5	5
total	239	209

Result

Final score

239 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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