Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

360.68 – 271.8

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.8 ±10.4

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 129.05Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 100.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 131.25Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.1 ±9.8

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 112.37Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 74.31Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 85.12Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3940, 3176, 461

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3940, 3176, 461

Auto

57.2 16%

Teleop

186.0 52%

Endgame

116.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5010, 9119, 5402

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5010, 9119, 5402

Auto

40.9 15%

Teleop

170.3 63%

Endgame

57.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score360.7pts

Blue projected score271.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.9
Score range: 223–410
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 705 vs event baseline 269.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.8Season APEX419.1

57.2Auto40.9

186Teleop170.3

116Endgame57.9

113Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	34
teleop	215	201
endgame	79	108
foul	5	0
total	362	343

Result

Final score

362 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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