Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.35 – 209.78

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

230 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 26.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254 ±9.8

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 50.68Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 43.09Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 132.58Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.3 ±9.8

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 107.2Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 79.75Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 22.83Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5484, 9431, 45

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5484, 9431, 45

Auto

29.5 13%

Teleop

144.6 64%

Endgame

50.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 234, 6498, 10434

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 234, 6498, 10434

Auto

43.4 21%

Teleop

82.1 39%

Endgame

82.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score226.4pts

Blue projected score209.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.6
Score range: 161–275
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 270.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254Season APEX268.3

29.5Auto43.4

144.6Teleop82.1

50.2Endgame82.6

119Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	49
teleop	144	149
endgame	62	62
foul	0	0
total	230	260

Result

Final score

230 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 26.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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