Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.28 – 183.56

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 73.4 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418 ±9.8

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX -Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 120Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 57.43Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.8 ±8.8

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX -Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 96Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 39.71Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1501, 829, 2867

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1501, 829, 2867

Auto

49.8 22%

Teleop

131.4 58%

Endgame

44.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1747, 7457, 1741

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1747, 7457, 1741

Auto

31.8 17%

Teleop

94.8 52%

Endgame

57.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score225.3pts

Blue projected score183.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.7
Score range: 132–277
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 287.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418Season APEX526.8

35.4Auto17.4

107.4Teleop70.9

34.6Endgame47.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	16
teleop	85	92
endgame	2	113
foul	0	0
total	116	221

Result

Final score

116 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 73.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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