Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

227.71 – 235.48

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

206 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387 ±9.3

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 157.37Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 21.15Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 49.19Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.5 ±9.8

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 106.93Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 57.29Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 71.26Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 8430, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10021, 8430, 7657

Auto

49.0 22%

Teleop

111.2 50%

Endgame

63.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1501, 1646, 4982

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1501, 1646, 4982

Auto

29.2 12%

Teleop

136.9 58%

Endgame

68.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score227.7pts

Blue projected score235.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.8
Score range: 179–284
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 272.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387Season APEX468.5

49Auto29.2

111.2Teleop136.9

63.7Endgame68.6

147Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	51
teleop	157	117
endgame	26	89
foul	0	0
total	206	257

Result

Final score

206 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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