Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.7 – 235.83

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

408 – 433

Prediction missed · off by 103.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.6 ±9.3

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 96.62Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 171.03Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 130.05Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.9 ±9.4

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 105.93Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 1.28Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7457suPURDUEper Robotics

Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 128.62Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8116, 4272, 461

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8116, 4272, 461

Auto

50.2 13%

Teleop

192.3 50%

Endgame

145.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6721, 6956, 7457

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6721, 6956, 7457

Auto

75.5 32%

Teleop

128.4 55%

Endgame

31.4 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score397.7pts

Blue projected score235.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.9
Score range: 187–447
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 841 vs event baseline 270.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.6Season APEX457.9

50.2Auto75.5

192.3Teleop128.4

145.8Endgame31.4

126Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	104
teleop	205	213
endgame	122	101
foul	5	15
total	408	433

Result

Final score

408 – 433

Prediction missed · off by 103.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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