Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.49 – 177.06

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 241

Prediction missed · off by 63.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.3 ±10.4

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 20.9Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 76.4Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 134.19Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±9.3

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 33.98Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 116.48Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 26.6Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2867, 9119, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2867, 9119, 3940

Auto

69.6 30%

Teleop

111.7 48%

Endgame

51.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9491, 868, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9491, 868, 135

Auto

36.4 21%

Teleop

105.9 60%

Endgame

34.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score231.5pts

Blue projected score177.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.4
Score range: 128–280
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 271.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.3Season APEX384.5

69.6Auto36.4

111.7Teleop105.9

51.1Endgame34.8

101Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	59
teleop	77	109
endgame	49	48
foul	0	25
total	169	241

Result

Final score

169 – 241

Prediction missed · off by 63.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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