Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.22 – 200.81

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

235 – 255

Prediction missed · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.4 ±10.4

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 62.92Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 104.26Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 87.04Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.9 ±9.8

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 64.26Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 119.58Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 16.97Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1747, 3176, 5402

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1747, 3176, 5402

Auto

24.6 10%

Teleop

133.8 53%

Endgame

92.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4580, 761, 10434

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4580, 761, 10434

Auto

47.0 23%

Teleop

93.0 46%

Endgame

61.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score254.2pts

Blue projected score200.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.4
Score range: 152–303
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 271.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.4Season APEX347.9

24.6Auto47

133.8Teleop93

92.6Endgame61.6

95Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	43
teleop	104	159
endgame	88	53
foul	5	0
total	235	255

Result

Final score

235 – 255

Prediction missed · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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