Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

319.63 – 348.05

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

470 – 303

Prediction missed · off by 97.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.3 ±9.3

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 100.38Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 99.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 119.63Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.5 ±9.3

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 53.74Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 132.14Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 162.17Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3494, 5010, 45

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3494, 5010, 45

Auto

54.2 17%

Teleop

198.7 62%

Endgame

69.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5484, 829, 1024

/ 100 compat

Projected

348 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5484, 829, 1024

Auto

65.4 19%

Teleop

216.4 63%

Endgame

60.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score319.6pts

Blue projected score348pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.4
Score range: 271–397
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 773 vs event baseline 269.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.3Season APEX409.5

54.2Auto65.4

198.7Teleop216.4

69.4Endgame60.9

99Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	96
teleop	300	145
endgame	114	62
foul	0	0
total	470	303

Result

Final score

470 – 303

Prediction missed · off by 97.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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