Experimental AI-assisted analytics, predictions and ratings are estimates, not official results.
FRCinsights
FIRST Indiana State Championship

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction
Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

488.17 – 406.44

73%27%
Actual result
Winner

Red alliance

Final score

439 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.7 ±9.3
1720PhyXTGears
B
Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 189.87Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
4926GalacTech
C
Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 120.37Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
4272Maverick Robotics
A
Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 177.93Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 771.7 ±8.1
7457suPURDUEper Robotics
A
Season APEX 274.3Event APEX 132.09Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears
A
Season APEX 283Event APEX 162.07Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
1501Team THRUST
B
Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 112.28Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1720, 4926, 4272
88
/ 100 compat
Projected
488.2 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 1720, 4926, 4272
Auto
96.2 20%
Teleop
269.9 56%
Endgame
118.4 24%
Strengths
  • · Well-balanced across phases
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7457, 10021, 1501
88
/ 100 compat
Projected
406.4 pts
~1.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7457, 10021, 1501
Auto
87.0 22%
Teleop
214.6 54%
Endgame
98.0 25%
Strengths
  • · Well-balanced across phases
  • · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
  • · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 26%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.25
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score488.2pts
Blue projected score406.4pts
Red win probability73%
Event bonus sample184alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 21%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
  • Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
  • Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
  • Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin
81.7
Score range
358–536
Upset likelihood
27%
Data cutoff
2026-08-15
Model
apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset
High scoring

Combined score 802 vs event baseline 267.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.7Season APEX771.7
96.2Auto87
269.9Teleop214.6
118.4Endgame98
120Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

PhaseRedBlue
auto67114
teleop218203
endgame11446
foul400
total439363

Result

Final score

439 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree

Match videos

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