Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

215.97 – 276.2

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.9 ±9.8

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 48.94Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 111.28Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 55.75Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298 ±10.4

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 138.85Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 82.87Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7657Thunderbots

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 54.48Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1741, 6721, 7617

/ 100 compat

Projected

216 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1741, 6721, 7617

Auto

28.5 14%

Teleop

132.5 64%

Endgame

47.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3940, 6498, 7657

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3940, 6498, 7657

Auto

76.6 28%

Teleop

137.2 51%

Endgame

57.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score216pts

Blue projected score276.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.2
Score range: 168–324
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 268.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.9Season APEX298

28.5Auto76.6

132.5Teleop137.2

47.5Endgame57.2

124Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	65
teleop	41	91
endgame	20	94
foul	0	0
total	165	250

Result

Final score

165 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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