Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

229.8 – 98.82

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.1 ±9.3

9119Iron Legends

Season APEX 79.6Event APEX 80.63Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 120.74Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 28.43Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.6 ±9.8

10434CYBEARS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 15.62Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 59.57Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 23.63Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9119, 761, 135

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9119, 761, 135

Auto

43.8 20%

Teleop

137.4 61%

Endgame

43.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10434, 1646, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10434, 1646, 8430

Auto

16.4 17%

Teleop

23.7 24%

Endgame

58.1 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score229.8pts

Blue projected score98.8pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131
Score range: 50–279
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 270.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.1Season APEX257.6

43.8Auto16.4

137.4Teleop23.7

43.3Endgame58.1

94Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	30
teleop	96	41
endgame	24	29
foul	0	5
total	185	105

Result

Final score

185 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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