Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

361.8 – 241.46

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

385 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.5 ±9.8

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 128.62Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 127.78Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

234Cyber Blue

Season APEX 121.9Event APEX 105.4Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 428.6 ±9.8

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 62.41Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 65.3Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

868TechHOUNDS

Season APEX 240.9Event APEX 113.75Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 829, 461, 234

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 829, 461, 234

Auto

57.2 16%

Teleop

202.0 56%

Endgame

104.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4580, 447, 868

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4580, 447, 868

Auto

43.9 19%

Teleop

118.5 51%

Endgame

68.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score361.8pts

Blue projected score241.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.3
Score range: 193–410
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 670 vs event baseline 269.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.5Season APEX428.6

57.2Auto43.9

202Teleop118.5

104.2Endgame68.7

121Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	61
teleop	177	148
endgame	156	71
foul	0	5
total	385	285

Result

Final score

385 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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