Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.04 – 119.65

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

332 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.9 ±9.3

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 38.72Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 156.41Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 94.91Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.2 ±10.4

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 18.63Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 2.2Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 98.82Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9431, 1024, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

290 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9431, 1024, 5010

Auto

54.1 19%

Teleop

178.4 62%

Endgame

54.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2867, 6956, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2867, 6956, 3176

Auto

26.5 22%

Teleop

50.4 42%

Endgame

44.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score290pts

Blue projected score119.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170.4
Score range: 71–339
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 464 vs event baseline 270.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.9Season APEX281.2

54.1Auto26.5

178.4Teleop50.4

54.9Endgame44

134Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	49
teleop	204	71
endgame	57	12
foul	5	0
total	332	132

Result

Final score

332 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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