Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

215.64 – 282.03

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277 ±10.4

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 91.7Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 80.8Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 43.14Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.6 ±9.8

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 62.6Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

45TechnoKats Robotics Team

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 120.63Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 98.8Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5402, 4982, 9491

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5402, 4982, 9491

Auto

32.3 15%

Teleop

124.7 58%

Endgame

58.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1747, 45, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

282 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1747, 45, 8116

Auto

24.2 9%

Teleop

149.6 53%

Endgame

107.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score215.6pts

Blue projected score282pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.4
Score range: 167–331
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 271.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277Season APEX293.6

32.3Auto24.2

124.7Teleop149.6

58.4Endgame107.9

107Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	20
teleop	93	131
endgame	16	123
foul	0	0
total	133	274

Result

Final score

133 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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