Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

299.51 – 301.38

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

319 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±10.4

6721Tindley Trailblazers

Season APEX 122.3Event APEX 108.67Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

829The Digital Goats

Season APEX 116.8Event APEX 123.88Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 66.96Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.7 ±9.8

761TechPUPS

Season APEX 212.6Event APEX 118.74Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 125.1Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 57.54Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6721, 829, 447

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6721, 829, 447

Auto

41.0 14%

Teleop

165.8 57%

Endgame

82.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 761, 461, 1646

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 761, 461, 1646

Auto

50.3 17%

Teleop

151.6 52%

Endgame

89.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score299.5pts

Blue projected score301.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.9
Score range: 251–350
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 655 vs event baseline 270.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.5Season APEX522.7

41Auto50.3

165.8Teleop151.6

82.9Endgame89.9

111Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	51
teleop	198	171
endgame	55	109
foul	5	5
total	319	336

Result

Final score

319 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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