Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

316.37 – 350.92

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

420 – 364

Prediction missed · off by 58.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.5 ±9.8

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 151.83Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6498Castle Robotics

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 76.76Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3176Purple Precision

Season APEX 133.1Event APEX 87.78Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.3 ±9.3

1024Kil-A-Bytes

Season APEX 228.7Event APEX 155.45Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 19.03Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 176.44Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 6498, 3176

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10021, 6498, 3176

Auto

54.0 18%

Teleop

157.8 52%

Endgame

89.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1024, 2867, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1024, 2867, 4272

Auto

91.4 26%

Teleop

176.4 51%

Endgame

79.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score316.4pts

Blue projected score350.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.6
Score range: 268–399
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 784 vs event baseline 268.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.5Season APEX551.3

54Auto91.4

157.8Teleop176.4

89Endgame79.1

148Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	100
teleop	199	182
endgame	146	77
foul	0	5
total	420	364

Result

Final score

420 – 364

Prediction missed · off by 58.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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