Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

258.1 – 195.85

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

238 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.4 ±10.4

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 147.91Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 68.19Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9431Snider Panthers- "The Gold Standard"

Season APEX 84.2Event APEX 42Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353 ±9.8

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 41.07Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 59.32Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 95.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3940, 4580, 9431

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3940, 4580, 9431

Auto

53.0 21%

Teleop

133.0 52%

Endgame

72.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9491, 1747, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9491, 1747, 3494

Auto

42.0 22%

Teleop

76.6 40%

Endgame

72.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score258.1pts

Blue projected score195.9pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62.3
Score range: 148–306
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 481 vs event baseline 269.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.4Season APEX353

53Auto42

133Teleop76.6

72.2Endgame72.7

133Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	40
teleop	138	129
endgame	39	74
foul	0	0
total	238	243

Result

Final score

238 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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