Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.42 – 173.21

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.3 ±9.3

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 97.72Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 5.48Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 103.22Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.8 ±9.3

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 82.86Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1741Red Alert

Season APEX 163.7Event APEX 52.98Rank 26Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 37.37Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8116, 6956, 5010

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8116, 6956, 5010

Auto

29.8 14%

Teleop

113.0 55%

Endgame

63.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4982, 1741, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4982, 1741, 8430

Auto

21.6 12%

Teleop

89.0 50%

Endgame

68.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score206.4pts

Blue projected score173.2pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.2
Score range: 125–254
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 269.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.3Season APEX310.8

29.8Auto21.6

113Teleop89

63.6Endgame68.1

126Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	24
teleop	129	89
endgame	79	43
foul	0	0
total	214	156

Result

Final score

214 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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