Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

347.14 – 168.44

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

417 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 81.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 555.1 ±9.3

9491Crypto Creek

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 32.33Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 144.46Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1720PhyXTGears

Season APEX 211.4Event APEX 170.35Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±9.8

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 111.78Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

135Penn Robotics Black Knights

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 7.19Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1747Harrison Boiler Robotics

Season APEX 88.8Event APEX 49.47Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9491, 10021, 1720

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9491, 10021, 1720

Auto

71.1 21%

Teleop

164.9 49%

Endgame

102.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 461, 135, 1747

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 461, 135, 1747

Auto

35.0 22%

Teleop

58.9 36%

Endgame

68.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score347.1pts

Blue projected score168.4pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 178.7
Score range: 120–395
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 679 vs event baseline 266.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

555.1Season APEX323.5

71.1Auto35

164.9Teleop58.9

102Endgame68.6

144Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	27
teleop	259	138
endgame	98	97
foul	0	0
total	417	262

Result

Final score

417 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 81.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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