Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.98 – 235.46

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

347 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 74.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.7 ±9.8

461Westside Boiler Invasion

Season APEX 151.8Event APEX 124.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 55.09Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 57.37Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.3 ±9.3

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 110.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4926GalacTech

Season APEX 112.5Event APEX 98.27Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 26.43Rank 38Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 461, 7617, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

237 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 461, 7617, 5484

Auto

37.9 17%

Teleop

126.8 56%

Endgame

60.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3494, 4926, 8430

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3494, 4926, 8430

Auto

58.2 25%

Teleop

120.0 52%

Endgame

51.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score237pts

Blue projected score235.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.5
Score range: 185–287
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 621 vs event baseline 280.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.7Season APEX367.3

37.9Auto58.2

126.8Teleop120

60.4Endgame51.7

126Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	70
teleop	196	134
endgame	96	55
foul	25	15
total	347	274

Result

Final score

347 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 74.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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