Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

320.8 – 190.01

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.6 ±10.4

7617RoboBlazers

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 66.03Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 157.47Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4982Olympus Robotics

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 97.3Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.1 ±9.8

4580Conductors

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 69.55Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 98.45Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2867ElkLogics

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 22.01Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7617, 3940, 4982

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7617, 3940, 4982

Auto

51.2 16%

Teleop

194.6 61%

Endgame

73.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4580, 5010, 2867

/ 100 compat

Projected

190 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4580, 5010, 2867

Auto

40.8 21%

Teleop

114.1 59%

Endgame

36.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score320.8pts

Blue projected score190pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.8
Score range: 142–369
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 265.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.6Season APEX393.1

51.2Auto40.8

194.6Teleop114.1

73.9Endgame36.9

122Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	67
teleop	145	73
endgame	34	71
foul	5	0
total	260	211

Result

Final score

260 – 211

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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