Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

199.6 – 234

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.7 ±9.3

6956SHAM-ROCK-BOTICS ☘

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 21.41Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 122.74Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 55.45Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.2 ±10.4

5402Wreckless Robotics

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 82.93Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

447Team Roboto

Season APEX 100.4Event APEX 72.99Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 78.08Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6956, 1501, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6956, 1501, 5484

Auto

22.6 12%

Teleop

115.2 60%

Endgame

54.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5402, 447, 1646

/ 100 compat

Projected

234 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5402, 447, 1646

Auto

24.4 10%

Teleop

125.0 54%

Endgame

83.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score199.6pts

Blue projected score234pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.4
Score range: 152–282
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 267.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.7Season APEX379.2

22.6Auto24.4

115.2Teleop125

54.3Endgame83.9

112Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	35
teleop	81	96
endgame	18	38
foul	0	35
total	125	204

Result

Final score

125 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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